Company Overview
Flutter Entertainment, formed from the 2016 Paddy Power-Betfair merger, operates a portfolio of brands including FanDuel (U.S.), Paddy Power and Betfair (UK/Ireland), Sportsbet (Australia), and Sisal (Italy). As of Q3 2025, it serves 14+ million AMPs across 100+ countries, with sports betting (56% of revenue), iGaming (40%), and other (4%). The company listed on NYSE as FLUT in January 2024 (previously FLTR.L on LSE). Market cap: ~$38.4B; Beta: 1.18. 2025 guidance: Revenue $16.69B (+19% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $2.915B (+24% YoY).
The world’s leading online sports betting and iGaming operator, Flutter Entertainment, has demonstrated robust growth in 2025, driven by its dominant U.S. market position via FanDuel plus international expansion.
Through Q3 results, revenue in 2025 has surged 14% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA up 17%, reflecting strong operating leverage and average monthly player (AMP) growth of ~10%.
Earnings Per Share (EPS) remain volatile due to non-cash impairments and regulatory adjustments, posting a TTM loss of ($1.27) per share. Over the past five years (2020-2024), revenue has compounded at ~23% CAGR, outpacing the broader consumer discretionary sector, though profitability has been inconsistent and debt levels high.
Flutter has recorded a -2.38% return on equity (ROE) TTM, with a debt/equity ratio of 1.30 both signals for caution, offset by a durable moat from market leadership (~56% GGR market share) and ~13.9 million AMPs. While FLUT revenue expansion has been impressive a PEG ratio of -4.08 (distorted by expansion driven losses), suggest its a high growth play better suited for growth investors than those looking for more predictable and incremental maturity in earnings.
Recommendation: Hold for growth-focused portfolio with a target price $250 (Dec 26) ~14% up from ~$219.72 closing price Dec 24, 2025. Risks include regulatory headwinds, not least the companies recent foray into Prediction markets & sports results short run especially NFL in Q4 of each season when 192 of the 280 games on the schedule are played October-December, of which just 56 games are prime time stand alone over this 13 week period (Thursday, Sunday, Monday Night Football plus Thanksgiving and Christmas Day games) which handle ~3X an average regular slate game).
2025 Performance by Quarter
Flutter’s 2025 performance reflects U.S. scaling (FanDuel revenue +25% YoY in Q3) and international iGaming momentum, tempered by customer-friendly sports outcomes in Q3/Q4. Key metrics below use reported figures where available; adjusted metrics for EBITDA and EPS highlight operational health.
| Q | Revenue ($B) | YoY Growth | Adj. EBITDA | YoY Growth | EPS | Adj. EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 3.66 | +8% | 616 | +20% | 1.57 | ~1.59 |
| Q2 | 4.18 | +16% | 919 | +25% | N/A | 2.95 |
| Q3 | 3.79 | +17% | ~780 (est.) | +6% | -3.91 | 1.64 |
| YTD | 11.6 | +14% | 2,315 (est.) | +17% | N/A | N/A |
Key Notes
- Q1: U.S. revenue +18%; AMPs +8% to 114,880; net income +289% to $335M.
- Q2: iGaming +42% in U.S.; AMPs +11%; raised FY guidance.
- Q3: Acquisitions (Snai, Betnacional) add $50M; sports results impact -$170M EBITDA; net loss $789M from impairments.
- YTD: AMPs +10%; U.S. EBITDA margin +530bps YoY. Q4 est. revenue $5.04B.
Q4 2025 outlook incorporates $260M EBITDA headwind from NFL outcomes but benefits from “FanDuel Predicts” launch (est. $40-50M incremental cost). Overall, 2025 positions Flutter for 20%+ revenue growth, with margins expanding to 17.5%.
Five-Year Performance (2020-2024)
Flutter has transformed from a regional player to global leader, with revenue tripling amid U.S. legalization tailwinds. However, EPS volatility stems from acquisition integrations (e.g., Sisal) and FX impacts. Stock performance lagged broader markets due to 2023 losses but rebounded 50%+ in 2024 on U.S. dominance.
| Year | Revenue ($ B) | YoY Growth | Diluted EPS ( $) | YoY Change | Stock Price (Year-End, GBP equiv. for pre-2024) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 6.03 | +25% (from 2019) | N/A | N/A | ~£80 (FLTR.L) |
| 2021 | 8.31 | +38% | N/A | N/A | ~£120 |
| 2022 | 9.46 | +14% | -2.44 | N/A | ~£110 |
| 2023 | 11.79 | +25% | -6.89 | -182% | ~£140 |
| 2024 | 14.05 | +19% | 0.24 | +103% | $258 (FLUT) |
- Revenue CAGR (2020-2024): 23.6% (from $6.03B to $14.05B), driven by U.S. entry (FanDuel acquisition 2018, but scaled post-PASPA). Outperforming peers including DraftKings albeit with ~30% CAGR on a smaller base.
- EPS CAGR: Not meaningful due to negatives; TTM 2024 positive shift signals turnaround.
- Stock Price CAGR: 2.0-2.25% (end-2020 ~£80 to end-2024 $258, adjusted for ADR conversion ~1:4 ratio), underperforming S&P 500 (~15% CAGR) amid profitability delays but up 8.5% over five years TTM.
- 2025 YTD stock return: -10.3% (vs. S&P +16.4%), pressured by Q3 impairments but supported by $5B buyback authorization.
What might Warren Buffett say ?
| Metric | Flutter TTM (2025) | Buffett Ideal | Rank (vs. Peers: DraftKings, MGM Resorts) | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROE | -2.38% | >15% | Low (MGM 5.2%; DraftKings -45%) | Negative due to 2023 carryover losses; historical avg. ~8% pre-2023. Improving with EBITDA leverage. |
| Debt/Equity | 1.30 (129.78%) | <0.5 | Moderate (MGM 2.1; DraftKings 0.8) | $12.87B debt supports growth but leverage ratio 2.4x (target 2.0-2.5x). Free cash flow conversion 177% in 2024 aids deleveraging. |
| ROIC | 4.78% | >10% | Moderate | Reflects capital-intensive U.S. expansion; moat via 14M AMPs and 14.1% sportsbook margins. |
| Earnings Consistency | Volatile (negatives in 2022-23) | Steady growth | Low | Acquisitions drove dips; 2024-25 stabilization via cost controls ($200M+ savings). |
Overall Rank: 6/10. Strong moat (U.S. #1 share, proprietary tech) but leverage and ROE lag value ideals. Suited for “wonderful company at fair price” if debt falls to 1.0x by 2027.
What might Peter Lynch say ?
| Metric | Flutter TTM (2025) | Lynch Ideal | Rank (vs. Peers) | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEG Ratio | -4.08 | <1 | Neutral (MGM 1.2; DraftKings N/A) | Negative EPS skews; forward PEG ~0.8 on 25% est. growth. |
| Earnings Growth (5-Yr EPS) | N/A (volatile) | >20% | Moderate | 2024-25 adjusted EPS +300% YoY; revenue proxy 23% CAGR. |
| P/E (Forward) | N/A (negative TTM) | < Growth Rate | High (undervalued) | Forward P/E ~24x on $9.59 FY25 EPS est.; P/S 2.5x vs. sector 3.5x. |
Overall Rank: 7/10. High-growth profile (AMP +10% YoY) aligns with Lynch’s “fast growers,” but volatility suits aggressive investors. Potential 2-3x in 5 years if U.S. TAM ($150B) captured.
Risks and Opportunities
- Risks: Regulatory (e.g., India impairments, Illinois tax); sports volatility (±$200M EBITDA swing); competition (ESPN Bet).
- Opportunities: FanDuel Predicts launch (Q4 2025); $5B buyback; international M&A (Snai adds 5% revenue).
Conclusion and Guidance
Flutter’s 2025 trajectory and 5-year growth underscore a compelling growth story in a $100B+ global TAM, but value metrics temper enthusiasm for conservative mandates. For institutional growth allocations (10-15% portfolio), initiate/hold at current levels; monitor Q4 earnings (Feb 2026) for leverage progress. Upside catalysts: 2026 EBITDA $3.5B+ on Predicts ramp. Downside: 10% to $197 if debt rises. This analysis supports a neutral-to-positive stance for diversified firms.
Wagering America 
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