Company Overview
MGM Resorts owns and operates 17 properties worldwide, including flagship Las Vegas Strip assets (Bellagio, MGM Grand, Mandalay Bay, Aria), regional U.S. casinos (Borgata, Beau Rivage), and a 56% stake in MGM China (MGM Cotai). Its digital arm, BetMGM (50/50 JV with Entain), has established itself as a leader in U.S. online sports betting and iGaming with ~20% market share, primarily driven by its deep library of content and iconic casino brand.
As of Q3 2025, MGM serves 42M+ visitors annually; market cap: ~$11.2B; Beta: 1.42. 2025 guidance: Consolidated revenue ~$17.5B (+2% YoY), adjusted EBITDA ~$2.6B (+4%), with BetMGM contributing $2.75B revenue (+25% YoY) and projecting $200M EBITDA (2025 an inflection year from 2018-2024 losses).
Recent Performance Summary
MGM Resorts International (NYSE: MGM), a global leader in integrated resort operations, exhibited steady recovery in 2025, bolstered by Las Vegas Strip strength and BetMGM digital growth, though offset by softer regional performance and Macau challenges.
Year-to-date through Q3 2025, revenue totaled ~$12.88B (+3% YoY average), with adjusted EBITDA estimated at ~$1.95B (+5%), and adjusted EPS of $1.72 (down slightly YoY due to Q3 miss). TTM GAAP EPS stands at $0.24, reflecting a Q3 impairment hit. Over the past five years (2020-2024), revenue compounded at ~35% CAGR from COVID lows, significantly outpacing the consumer discretionary sector, with profitability rebounding to positive territory.
Return on Equity is at 10.9% TTM approaching target ideals (>15%) while debt/equity of 2.38 indicates leverage risks. MGM has a wide moat from iconic brands (e.g., Bellagio) and 42M annual visitors.
Growth focus holdings should be tempered by a PEG of 2.05 (>1 target threshold), though forward P/E multiple of 16.3x aligns with ~12% EPS growth estimates.
Recommendation: Hold for balanced portfolios; target price $45 (21% upside from $37.09 close on Dec 24, 2025), driven by BetMGM’s raised FY25 guidance ($2.75B revenue, $200M EBITDA) and share repurchases. Risks center on China exposure and broader economic discretionary spend sensitivity.
2025 Performance by Quarter
| Quarter | Revenue ($B) | YoY Growth | Adjusted EBITDA ($$ M) | YoY Growth | GAAP EPS ( $$) | Adjusted EPS ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 (ended Mar 31) | 4.277 | -2% | 750 (est.) | +5% | N/A | 0.69 |
| Q2 (ended Jun 30) | 4.330 (est.) | +5% | 850 | +10% | N/A | 0.79 |
| Q3 (ended Sep 30) | 4.300 | +2% | 350 (est.) | -10% | -1.05 | 0.24 |
| YTD Q1-Q3 | 12.907 | +2% | 1,950 (est.) | +5% | N/A | 1.72 |
Key Notes
- Q1: Las Vegas +3%; BetMGM rev +20%; EPS beat est. $0.50; net income $150M.
- Q2: Record revenue; repurchased 8M shares ($217M); BetMGM EBITDA +inflection; EPS beat $0.58.
- Q3: Revenue in line; net loss $285M on impairments; BetMGM +25% rev; EPS miss $0.30.
- Q4: Las Vegas table rev +6%; Q4 est. revenue $4.6B to meet guidance.
Q4 outlook anticipates strength in earnings over the holiday period with BetMGM distribution (~$100M payback to MGM), positioning for modest full-year growth amid stable hold rates (~10%).
Five-Year Performance (2020-2024)
MGM rebounded sharply post-COVID, with revenue quadrupling via capacity reopenings and digital expansion. EPS turned positive in 2022; stock CAGR trailed S&P due to 2022-23 volatility but is up ~23% over period.
| Year | Revenue ($ B) | YoY Growth | Diluted EPS ( $) | YoY Change | Stock Price (Year-End) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 5.17 | -58% (COVID) | -7.44 | N/A | $30.40 |
| 2021 | 5.94 | +15% | 0.54 | +107% | $37.36 |
| 2022 | 13.10 | +121% | 3.49 | +547% | $33.91 |
| 2023 | 16.16 | +23% | 3.19 | -9% | $42.17 |
| 2024 | 17.22 | +7% | 2.40 | -25% | $41.00 |
Key Notes
- Revenue CAGR (2020-2024): 35% (from $5.17B to $17.22B), propelled by U.S. regional ramp and BetMGM launch (2020). Outperforms Flutter ~24% while trailing DraftKings ~59% from a smaller base.
- EPS CAGR: Not meaningful early (negatives); ~ -23% from 2022 peak, but TTM stabilization.
- Stock Price CAGR: 7.7% (end-2020 $30.40 to end-2024 $41.00), under S&P (~15%) on Macau drags but 2025 YTD -9% (vs. S&P +16.4%), supported by $1B+ buybacks.
What might Warren Buffett say ?
Consistent ROE, high leverage in debt (<0.5 debt/equity), with a moderately strong moat (e.g., prime location barriers, iconic brand, scale of customer database). MGM shows progress but leverage persists as a risk.
| Metric | MGM TTM (2025) | Buffett Ideal | Rank (vs. Peers: Flutter, DraftKings) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE | 10.9% | >15% | Moderate (Flutter -2%; DKNG -30%) |
| Debt/Equity | 2.38 (238%) | <0.5 | High (Flutter 1.3; DKNG 2.6) |
| ROIC | 5.2% (est.) | >10% | Moderate |
| Earnings Consistency | Positive since 2022 | Steady growth | Moderate |
- ROE: Improved from 2024’s 8%; driven by asset-light BetMGM (20% margins).
- D/E: $12.5B debt from expansions; net debt/EBITDA ~5x (target <4x); FCF $1.2B YTD expected to assist in debt paydown.
- ROIC: Capital-heavy (capex $800M); moat via 50%+ Las Vegas share and loyalty program (MGM Rewards, 40M members).
- Earnings: Volatility from Macau (-20% 2024 rev); 2025 stabilization via cost savings ($150M).
Overall Rank: 6/10. Solid moat in premium hospitality, but debt suits cyclical plays over permanent capital facilitated investment options.
What would Peter Lynch say ?
Lynch seeks PEG <1 and P/E < growth for growth-at-reasonable-price. MGM’s mature profile yields higher PEG.
| Metric | MGM TTM (2025) | Lynch Ideal | Rank (vs. Peers) | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEG Ratio | 2.05 | <1 | Low (Flutter 0.8; DKNG 0.67) | Elevated on 12% 3-yr EPS growth est.; undervalued on P/S 0.65x vs. sector 1.2x. |
| Earnings Growth (5-Yr EPS) | N/A (volatile) | >20% | Moderate | Adjusted EPS +20% 2024-25; revenue 35% CAGR as proxy. |
| P/E (Forward) | 16.3x | < Growth Rate | High (undervalued) | On $2.28 FY25 EPS est.; justifies hold if BetMGM scales to $500M EBITDA by 2027. |
Overall Rank: 5/10. Steady grower in physical asset earnings productivity with digital upside, but lacks hypergrowth for tenbagger potential; better for dividend/value blends.
Risks and Opportunities
- Risks: Macau regulations (20% revenue exposure); economic slowdowns hitting discretionary spend; competition (Wynn, Caesars).
- Opportunities: BetMGM expansion (new states e.g. CA/TX or international, +$450M EBITDA swing with cost control); $1B buyback extension; Japan IR bid (potential $10B TAM).
Conclusion and Guidance
MGM’s 2025 steadiness and 5-year transformation affirm its position in a $200B+ global gaming TAM, with BetMGM as a high-margin pivot (target 15% EBITDA margins). Hold and monitor Q4 earnings (to be announced Feb 2026) and for China performance updates.
Upside case: $50 in anticipation of BetMGM distribution acceleration.
Downside case: 15% to $31 on recessionary pressures on consumer spend and travel.
Wagering America 
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