As New York lawmakers debate Assembly Bill A 9343, which seeks to eliminate all forms of in-game or live sports betting, the financial implications for the state’s gambling industry and public coffers are coming into sharp focus. The bill, introduced by Assemblymember Linda Rosenthal, would restrict wagers to pre-game options only, potentially reshaping the landscape of the nation’s largest sports betting market. Based on 2025 data, analysis shows the significant scale of the impact on sportsbook handle, operator revenue, state tax income, and migration to offshore betting platforms.
Estimating the Hit to Sportsbook Handle
New York’s sports betting market has been a powerhouse since legalization, with mobile and online wagering driving the bulk of activity. In 2025, the state’s annual handle—the total amount wagered—hovered around $23 billion, fueled by high-profile events like the NFL season, March Madness, and the NBA playoffs. Monthly figures peaked at $2.64 billion in October, reflecting robust growth from prior years.
Live betting, which allows wagers during ongoing games on elements like point spreads & player props, and real-time micro bets, accounts for a significant portion of this activity. In-play wagering represents over 50% of total U.S. sports betting handle, with figures as high as 52-55% in mature markets like New York’s. A ban would carry a direct loss of this segment & could slash annual handle by $11.5 billion to $12.7 billion, assuming no substitution effects.
However, the reality may be more nuanced. Live betting enhances user engagement, encouraging longer app sessions and higher overall wagering volumes. Without it, some pre-game bettors likely reduce overall activity, while others could shift portions of their in-game action to pre-match options. A conservative estimate projects a net handle reduction of 40-60%, or $9.3 billion to $14 billion annually. This aligns with industry warnings that removing live options could diminish the appeal of legal platforms, leading to lower participation rates.
Revenue Implications for Sportsbook Operators
Sportsbook revenue, or gross gaming revenue (GGR), is derived from the hold percentage—the portion of the handle retained after payouts. In 2025, New York’s average hold stood at approximately 9.5%, generating more than $2 billion in annual GGR from $23 billion handle.
Under the proposed ban, market share leading operators FanDuel & DraftKings could see NY OSB GGR plummet swaying operators to pivot & invest more in pre-game promotions and other markets. An overall profitability dip will further constrain smaller platforms and reduce innovation in user experience.
Tax Revenue Losses for New York State
New York already imposes the highest tax rates on sports betting revenue in the U.S., at 51% on GGR. In 2025, this translated to approximately $1.1 billion in tax contributions, primarily allocated to education funding. A ban on live betting erodes this substantially.
With a projected GGR reduction of $1.1 billion, the state forfeits ~$560 million in annual taxes. Even in a milder scenario with a 40% handle drop and partial substitution to pre-game betting, tax losses could still exceed $400 million. Lawmakers have cited responsible gaming as a priority, but critics argue the revenue hit undermines the bill’s viability, especially as sports betting taxes have become a key fiscal pillar since legal operations began in 2022.
The Potential Surge in Offshore Betting
Perhaps the most unpredictable impact is the migration to unregulated offshore sportsbooks. Platforms like Bovada or BetOnline, operating outside U.S. jurisdiction, already offer unrestricted live betting and often evade taxes entirely. Studies and industry analyses indicate that restrictive policies on legal markets drive bettors to these illegal alternatives.
If 20-30% of New York’s live betting handle shifts offshore—equating to $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion annually—the state would see zero tax revenue from that segment. This not only amplifies the legal market’s losses but also exposes bettors to risks like lack of consumer protections, fraudulent practices, and no responsible gaming safeguards. Recent crackdowns by states like Rhode Island highlight the growing challenge, but enforcement against offshore sites remains limited. Overall, this could inflate the U.S. offshore market, estimated at tens of billions, by several percentage points from New York alone.
Broader Considerations and Next Steps
While the bill aims to curb problem gambling and preserve sports integrity, its economic toll could be profound, potentially costing New York hundreds of millions in lost taxes while boosting unregulated offshore activity. The Assembly Racing and Wagering Committee continues to review the proposal, with input from industry stakeholders likely to emphasize these financial risks. As debates unfold, the balance between consumer protection and revenue generation will be critical in determining the future of sports betting in the Empire State.
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